by X.N. IRAKI

Special to G21

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X.N. Iraki

JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI, USA- It is very easy to become a politician, just tell people what they want to hear, the BBC once reported. One example is to tell a mammoth crowd of jobless people that you will create 500, 000 jobs in a year. You could always change and say you meant in five years.

500, 000 seems a small number, but it is not; there are just half as many teachers in the whole country of Kenya. I loathe the common mentality among us where we are always waiting in the wings to celebrate the failure of our neighbor, the death of his goat and say in earnest, "I told you". I will instead try and address the issue of job creation soberly without the unregulated mouth of some Kenyan politicians.

Almost one year after NARC came to power, we seem to have created few jobs as firms eagerly wait for tangible reforms. The only job we seem to be determined to create or uncreate is that of a Prime Minister. In fact we rarely hear policy makers talk about jobs anymore, yet ministers should be competing with one another on who has created more jobs.

Joblessness on the scale we have in Kenya is no doubt a big problem and will not be solved overnight. Imagine doubling the number of teachers in one year! To address this problem, let us first accept that the word job means different things to different people. To most Kenyans, particularly those of the younger generation, a job should include an office. But the reality is that even in the best of times most jobs are not office-based. Even during the Clinton boom years in the 1990s in the United States, most of the jobs created were low-value jobs like janitors, truck driving, sales people, fast food workers, etc. But they were jobs.

In Kenya, some jobs like farming are not considered jobs. I recall one parent telling me at one time that his son was jobless but he was teaching. Farmers consider themselves jobless and so do others in low jobs that don't need advanced skills. Yet the truth is that we all need one another. In our attempt to create jobs, we should endeavor to tone down the expectations with a dose of reality.

One such reality is that creating jobs is a job by itself. Can we trust our politicians, whose job is assured for the next five years with hefty pays increases included, to create jobs for us? Do they have the motivation? Will fear of losing the hefty pays increases energize them to ensure jobs are created so that they go on to a second term? Or will they be satisfied with one term only? We do know for sure that in other countries that found themselves in similar situations political leadership played a big role. Whether you look at success cases like Singapore or sorry cases like Nigeria with her wealth of oil, you will find the invisible hand of politicians, either directing the country to the right or wrong direction.

How did other countries who found themselves in the same position react? How did they solve their problem? In the depth of the great depression, unemployment in the US was about 25%. In Kenya today, it is estimated to be about 40%. But perhaps we could borrow a leaf from my hosts, Americans, by taking a step back in time, almost 70 years ago. Where appropriate I shall try and hop to other countries that have tried to solve a similar problem. We also must accept that countries are different, and that is where the creativity of our politicians is called upon.

One of the causes of the great depression, when jobs were few, was speculation; speculation is one of the causes of our problem in Kenya today, as well. There might be no speculation in the stock exchange, but there has been enough of it in other areas for Kenya, in land and in services, corruption is a way of speculation. One of the causes of our current crisis is the Goldenberg, where people made money by speculating on Treasury bills (TB). What a "good" way to make money without any risks" Put your money in TB bills and get a return of 80%.Even drug dealing may not give you such a return! Such speculation leads to a crowding out effect as government competes with the private sector - the engine of economic growth for scarce funds.

To curb speculation, we need a culture of hard work, where people are rewarded for taking risks not making deals. No one is congratulating the Kibaki government for bringing down interest rates, no wonder banks are shifting to service charges. But we learn the risk of getting into a liquidity trap. The interest rates may be low, but if investors' confidence is low, they will not borrow money to invest. They also must be convinced that the fall in interest rates is real. Already of concern to macro economists is the rising budget deficit in Kenya which must be financed. But it is not just at high levels where speculation is rife, you find deal makers everywhere; idlers who help you get into Matatus as if you are a fool, to those who show you rental houses, or where to buy spare parts for your car - at a small fee.

We need a stable macroeconomic environment, because it is uncertainty that makes speculation very possible. Why else do we have people buying land that they never develop? Some pundits have suggested that if we released all the idle land individuals hold, we may not need any foreign aid. It is the high time we started taxing idle land. Instability in the macroeconomic environment is caused by politics. There is no doubt that there is too much politics in our life in Kenya. Even in the worst of times you rarely find Americans talking politics, yet when I meet my fellow Kenyans here, we find ourselves drifting into politics - never mind that we mostly discuss personalities not ideas.

The political system in Kenya has been anti-wealth; it has been a millstone around our necks. Politics has been the way to wealth and the political system has been at the forefront in reaping where it never sowed, from forced Harambees to tolls stations like too many licenses. The political system has been very active in teaching us how to get free things. There is no gainsaying that few politicians have got into power with our welfare in mind, their main objective has been to use state power to accumulate wealth; in this they have got willing accomplices in every sector. Yet there is no government on this planet that ever excelled in business.

Take something as simple as licensing. All over the world, licenses ought to be used to regulate business, bring order, but in Kenya, they have another purpose, toll stations. Why do you need 40 licenses to operate a hotel?

The other way the Kenyan government has failed is in failing to ensure that wealth is protected and property rights are respected. In fact, one of the beauties of the American political system is the way wealth creators are protected. Property rights are clear and the rule of law is ensured. We did not see that happen in the 1992 and 1997 land crashes in Kenya. Wealth that people had accumulated for a generation was destroyed in one day. As our mentality goes, some people were happy because it is "them" who lost. But when economic problems hit, they are never selective. Insecurity, still a problem to this day, put a dent in investors' confidence. Some observers point out those deaths during those infamous crashes and the fact that no one was prosecuted made killing appear "normal" for the first time in independence.

I use the word investor very liberally - like a Californian. A young school leaver from Karachuonyo who goes selling omena in Nairobi is an investor, so is Kamau who goes selling Mitumba at Shamakhokho. If our local investors are not confident, how can we attract foreign ones?

Economists have a habit of pretending to be rational and using mind-boggling words to appear tough or to protect their discipline. Instead of talking of corruption they talk of "rent-seeking". There is no doubt that rent seeking has been perfected, especially at high levels. Economists, particularly the hard-nosed ones, will say judges were not corrupt; they were rent seeking, just trying to cope with unbalanced supply and demand for justice. If Kibaki's promise that free things - what speculators get is over - then we are in for great things. The blood suckers, ticks or what ever you would want to call speculators, are in deep trouble. The worst bloodsuckers and those that mix blood sucking with stupidity are the clerks in AG chambers who want money to help you register a business name. In fact this office should be under the AG's direct supervision. I have been in that department(trying to reduce unemployment), and I have been emboldened by the young people ready to take risks, by starting businesses, but speculators have stalled their work long before the young entrepreneurs have earned their first coin. You have to pay a bribe to help government create jobs?

In the US, it was not just speculation that brought the economy to its knees; the Congress instituted high tariffs like the infamous Smoot ‚Hartley Act of 1934. This hurt trade and worsened the problem,. Are we Kenyans not still negotiating with our neighboring countries over tariffs? Tariffs are one symptom of a government that is inside-looking, that is opaque to opportunities beyond its borders. That does not stop countries from protecting infant industries. The NARC government is too inside-looking. Few policy makers have talked about the great Chinese and Indian market, where a vast section of the world's population lives. But KQ needs to be congratulated for being strategic in its perspective. There is no doubt, even here in the US, that Asia is going to be the epicenter of the world economy as the century ages. The countries we admire like the tigers of South East Asia, focused beyond their borders, yet we of Kenya are unable to reach markets that are next door like Tanzania. Instead of thinking beyond the borders we are busy thinking locally, how we shall have governors and who shall be the Prime Minister and other myriad of posts that eat wealth not create it. When shall we realize that the government is not a mysterious animal that doles money to all of us, with an inexhaustible supply?

Forty years after independence, we are still marketing the country as the source of big game, what nature put in bounty. We are still an agricultural-based country. Yet to create jobs we need money from outside, from exports of high valued goods. I am yet to get Kenyan coffee in the American super markets, fully packaged to be delivered directly to the shelves. Did I hear that we export tea and then re-import it? But it is not just in the goods markets where we have failed to export value added goods, even in services.

Every year we import billions of educational services by taking our students abroad (don't ask me what I am doing there). Forty years after independence it is still cool to go abroad and pay through the nose for courses that need no facilities except a classroom. No politician or middle class advocate will talk about that because their children are there. A digression: the parallel degree program was a great idea, but it should have admitted students on merit; it is immoral to admit 50 students in Law or Medicine who worked hard then admit 200 others with lower grades because they can pay. I thought we are already in the era of meritocracy.

No country created jobs without a dose of patriotism. Did you hear George Bush, giving his speech; he was quick to point out that two of Kibaki's children went to American colleges. You can interpret that! Germans drive BMW and Mercedes, wherever on this planet they are. Britons do the same. When Americans realized they could not stop the tide of Japanese cars , they did what was economically and politically sensible, tell the Japanese to build their factories on the American soil. Let us be blunt, even if the Japanese firms employed all the Japanese workers, they can't sleep in Japan!. Why do we import Mitumba pants and bras? In other countries of the world, buying what is home made is considered a national duty, we look down upon even our names, creating vast market for goods and services from abroad at our own expense. How do we create jobs if there is no demand for our goods and services even from our own self?

In the US of the 1930s, wealth was unevenly distributed. That sounds like Kenya today. Some people have so much money that they don't know what to do with it; having got that money easily, they have no incentive to invest it, why take the risk? Money is in the hands of people who have no propensity to take risks. Why do you think every one takes his money, ill-gotten or otherwise, to real estate - avoidance of risk. This inequality has created a pool of angry men and women; their anger is boiling into the streets of our country, in terms of crime and other social vices. Because Kenya's wealthy elites don't invest their money, there is no demand, and the economy drags along.

The people ready to take risks, the young people straight from school or already in school, have no money to invest, but they do have ideas. If you don't believe me, go through the proposal BCom students write in their fourth year at Lower Kabete. The Kenyan Business Schools - and they are really proliferating - have been very busy minting people with businesses degrees, but I am yet to hear of a business incubator in these schools. Our banks simply look down upon people with great ideas but no money. After all they are foreign and, without any shade of contempt, have no interest in us. By the way, you will not see any of the big multinational Kenyan banks in the US!

What did Americans do? President Herbert Hoover was the first American to face the evils of the great depression. His observation was very right; he noted that the key to recovery was confidence in the economy. NARC can you hear me? To create confidence, people need jobs and assurance. How can Narc create jobs? Use what we have in abundance, labor.

What ever people want to say about President Moi, that man was at times foresighted. I recall that after he became president he mobilized every village and hamlet into community projects. The water supply, gabions and rural roads we built in my village are still in use. He made us plant trees, and conserve the environment. NARC can borrow a leaf. As a matter of urgency, the NARC government should identify priority areas to focus on. One such area is water; every village should build dams, which can be used for micro-power generation in addition to supplying water. Interestingly enough, the lifeline in dry areas like Laikipia happens to be dams the colonialists built before they left.

In my village, the colonialists had a fully working water supply system. The first thing the new settlers did was to steal the water pump! Pay people minimum wages or even nothing, they are the beneficiaries in such projects. What about reforestation, and road networks? What of irrigation projects?

Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR) who succeeded Hoover, apart from ensuring all these projects continued, gave a weekly address to the American people assuring them that the best was to come. I have not heard any government minister preach optimism; no one is telling us the best is yet to come. Though we may not eat words, we all know nothing matters more than assurance in times of distress. It amazes me how the Kenyan media preach doom and pessimism. Such civil projects will not only keep people busy, but they will be productive.

The feel-good effect after the NARC victory is being allowed to dissipate; it will be hard to gather it again.

Franklin D Roosevelt pushed the famous New Deal. In it, confidence in the banking sector was restored, civil works gave civilians jobs. Suppose the government designated an airport in every district headquarters and makes sure it is build manually? But there were also legistrative initiatives like establishment of social security administration and minimum wages.

But more curiously, in the depth of this depression there were great minds ready to look for solutions. John Maynard Keynes explained how government can bring the economy out of the depression. Macro economists to this day admit they still stand on the shoulders of Keynes. It may remain a mystery of our times why the great economic crises Kenya has been facing has not spawned great minds not just in Economics but even in other areas like Literature. Some may suggest that the great minds are there but that with the money they get from NGOs they have no incentives to solve any problems. I may be wrong, but if we solved most of these social problems like street children, most of these NGOs would cease to exist!

One often overlooked reason why the American New Deal was so successful was because everyone was behind the president. This might appear absurd, why can't we have a government of national unity in Kenya? Should we not look for any talent wherever it can be found? After economic recovery we can have parties and other luxuries. Why not declare economic recovery a national emergency like AIDS? There is too much politicking and posturing, not the way to create jobs.

The tigers of South East Asia, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore had one thing in common: they had a strong man who used his might to focus the country on its goals. In fact, one reason why China will surprise us is that, despite the introduction of a new economic order, the political order has been maintained as the bedrock.

Russia brought the two together, chaos resulted. We in Kenya are also trying to bring in a new economic order when there is no political order. The purge in the judiciary should be extended to all other sectors; without a new political order, any attempt to bring a new economic order and create jobs will be sabotaged.

The strategic goals of NARC are yet to be articulated in a way that will capture the national psyche. Winning polls was half the battle, we need grand ideas, set by our leaders, instead they are busy politicking; are they afraid of confronting the dragon, like Chief Justice Evans Gicheru?

Why is it not possible to create jobs, yet we have not been at war, some may say it is very hard to motivate people who have had no problem, perhaps the reason children of the rich finding excelling in school without tuition difficult.

But more important is the fact few people want to say loudly that governments never create jobs anywhere, it is the people, you and me, the people we frustrate at AG chambers at the beginning, with name registration.

Administrative jobs are not really jobs, they are low value jobs , that produce little - particularly in the government sector. Yet at one time someone thought one effective way to create jobs was to increase the number of employees by 10%, was it not the same people we were shedding through retrenchment?

I guess this is one illusion that proponents of devolution are anticipating, lots of jobs, to be administrators. In fact, the government should very fast consolidate districts to the fewest units possible. Devolution should come after economic turnaround. We cannot afford anything else to distract us from economic turnaround. The government ought to create an enabling environment for people to create jobs.

Take US cites, most have industrial parks that have all the facilities, all you need to do is to come and set up your business. Most of such land in Kenya has been targeted by grabbers, a euphemism for politicians who misuse their power. In the US, cities and states court investors like young girls. In Kenya, we see investors as opportunities to suck blood.The culture of getting something out of nothing , the way matatu touts get money for "leading " passengers into the vehicles, is so entrenched in our minds and must fast be removed. And you cannot beg people who make a living by doing nothing to stop. Changing the way people think will take time, but it can be done, because the alternative is worse.

Some people have suggested that we must also change the way we think, we must stop seeing failure as a sin; we must teach that in our schools and stop telling our students to work hard , get good grades and get good jobs. We should tell them to become employers.

Why can't we start teaching entrepreneurship in primary school? We must prepare the next generation of leaders and investors. We must stop our fanatical attachment to land (learn from Asians). The world today runs on ideas, new ideas.

We must put more emphasis on creativity in our schools. We must put more money in research and development; old tired ideas will take us nowhere. Where is our Silicon Valley? How many new, practical ideas have emerged from our Universities? Why do we teach religion in the University? Why is the society still a prisoner of the superstitious thinking dominated by witchcraft? Why do we have more graduates, but more problems? Was education not supposed to help us solve our problems? The middle class and the upper class - whoever they are, must use their superior knowledge to guide the country instead of using their privileged positions to exploit the country. How many peasants make decisions that affect our well-being? How many peasants grab land and playgrounds? In fact most of the people involved in antisocial and unprogressive practices are well educated and most have been abroad and seen how systems work, but their way of thinking is still local, prisoner of instant gratification and show-off bordering on misplaced snobbery.

Creating 500, 000 jobs is not that difficult: Start with the infrastructure, build roads. Start with roads that link us to our neighbors, what Raila is doing with the Mombasa-Malaba(better Kigali) road is very strategic. We should then build roads to link us to Tanzania, Ethiopia, Sudan and Somalia.

For Sudan, we urgently need a pipeline for petroleum. The next phase of roads should link provincial headquarters, then district sdown to the lowest levels. What of regional airports? Link as many people as possible to the national power grid. They will use that power to start small firms. Link people by telecommunications, give people information, and their instinct will do the rest. Is the River Tana Navigable? Can we make Garrissa an inland port? This does not discount tax cuts (another legacy of Keynes thinking) and a focus on agriculture, where most people get their livelihood.

Only a very naive person would dispute that farming and farmers have been neglected in Kenya. Some other people have come up with some ignominious ways to create jobs, one of them - attack Somalia; you will create jobs and make peace at the same time. Another way, and a better one, suggested is to host a US military base. If it has 5000 US soldiers and each spends 1000 US dollars every month that will translate into about 5 billon Ksh shillings a year; factor in the multiplier effect and you will see why we should be welcoming the Americans to our soils.

But an even easier way to create jobs, without having any smoke stacks and fear of retaliation from those who dislike Americans, is to ensure there is security,and then attract tourists.

France, with a population of 70 million people, attracts 70 million tourists a year. We are aiming at 1 million! We should aim at least 15 million, then we shall enter our Golden Age. We can enter into the post-industrial age without going through the smoke stacks of the industrial age.

We can also create jobs by focusing on regional strengths. Each region has its comparative advantage, which can be exploited. The coast has the vast Indian Ocean, one of Kenya's greatest natural resources. There is fish and tourism that should benefit us not just foreigners (patriotism again). Central Province has agriculture and natural beauty. I wonder why Nyahururu Municipality has not petitioned to have Lake Ol Bollosat, the only lake in Central Province, declared a National Park and then have tourists sail by boat from Thomson Falls to visit that beautiful lake with its hippos and beautiful birds. I wonder why they can call in Kuki Gallman of Laikipia Conservation forum as a co-investor. Why not later have cable cars transport tourists from Aberdares down the Shamata Escarpment to the Lake? This is much better than charging for telephone/electricity posts. Local thinking has been very costly to us. The arid North can support a meat industry that can be the envy of the world. Regional development will relieve pressure from Nairobi, which is choking under unplanned developed. Nairobi must fast get competitors. That is why I fully support upgrading other towns into cities.

Finally, Kibaki should put his ministers jobs on the line. Those who don't help in job creation should seek alternative occupations. The ministries are cogs in a wheel and must work harmoniously.

It must also be remembered that jobs will not be created in one day. Sacrifices must be made and patience must be sought. While some Kenyans will have a chance to leave the country (and I would suggest we make traveling abroad easier, it really opens up ones mind to possibilities) the vast majority will stay in Kenya, it is their home. With all the patriotism, it might not be a bad idea to let Kenyans seek jobs abroad - the reason we should make our education system first class.

Creating jobs is also our common obligation. We all have an obligation to make Kenya a better home. But before we do that, we must accept it as our home, our country and stop hating ourselves and peddling pessimism. Quite a number of Kenyans - from those at the top echelons of the society to those at the lowest - think and behave as if they are not Kenyans or as if they are in transit to another country.

Kenya is not as bad as we think but the people who are supposed to imbibe us with great expectations and confidence, our leaders, have failed us. They are setting bad examples by quarreling in public and awarding themselves hefty salary increments when the vast majority of Kenyans are jobless. Where is our Clinton? Where is our Kennedy? We need leaders who will make us proud, so that we can use all our energy to make Kenya a great country. (Don't doubt! I doubted it is a great country, until I traveled abroad).

But we also must play our small roles in our small ways. There is no good reason why the next generation should not sit at the balcony of their houses at sunset and tell the following generation with a smile and a cheerful heart, "We have come from far, and we can go farther ..." The time that will elapse before this happens is a function of our thinking and the sacrifices we are ready to make today irrespective of our position in society.

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X.N. IRAKI is a Kenyan writer currently studying in the United States. This is his second article for The World's Magazine. His previous article, on the class system in Kenya, appeared in our 28 July, 2003 edition.