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In spite of the high hopes dashed in the summit, the fact that the two adversaries met and shook hands creates and spreads optimism among thinking people in both countries on this crowded subcontinent. However, there were enough reasons for the prevailing frustration.
First of all, the joint statement was not released as the summit declaration. Though the draft Agra Declaration was ready, the heads of both countries did not sign it -- owing to the vast gulf between their approaches to the key issues. Neither leader would budge from their stated positions on the problem of Kashmir. Pakistan maintained that Kashmir must be the first priority for improved relations between the two nations. For India, the main issue was the cross-border terrorism which it believes is instigated and nurtured by Pakistan.
Large-scale illegal intrusions in the areas of Kargil, inside Indian borders, caused a mini-war between the two countries in 1999.
Even if one accepts the position of Gen. Musharraf that the "core" issue is Kashmir, the question arises how genuine is Pakistan's offer of peace. While Kashmir is an important and thorny issue for the two countries, India maintains that other issues are of equal importance: nuclear restraint, conventional CBMs (confidence building measures), trade liberalization, economic co-operation, people to people contacts, etc.
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As far the issue of Kashmir is concerned, the Indian position is well known. India is committed to the idea that the state of Jammu-Kashmir including the Kashmir Valley is an integral part of the Indian Union. According to India, the problem was settled once the then-ruler of the Province signed an agreement which was known as"The Instrument of Accession" with the Indian Union in 1947. The people of Kashmir had fought against Pakistani invaders and subsequently accepted Indian rule. Pakistan did not, however, approve of the accession. The Pakistani's based their rejection of the deal upon the old Two-Nation Theory (the notion that Hindus and Muslims constitute two nations.) Thus Pakistan has claimed Kashmir over the years, forcibly holding onto part of the Kashmir Valley.
Calling it a justified jehad (holy war), Pakistan has been encouraging insurgent activities among Kashmir's Muslim population.
People-to-people movement is still a distant dream for the common people living along the LoC.
Meanwhile, Pakistan has never been hesitant about helping extremists cross the LoC border after giving them training. India has always complained about movement and labels it cross-border terrorism. India alleges a subversive role on the part of Pakistan's Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI), including the establishment of training camps located in PoK, smuggling of arms, etc. That this subversive role in indeed a fact seems corroborated in the recently released annual report on global terrorism by the US State Department. The report states that Gen. Musharraf's regime "continued the previous Pakistani government support of the Kashmir insurgency" and notes that "militant groups continued to operate in Pakistan, raising funds and recruiting cadres..."
Among these groups, Lashkar-e-Toiba, the Harkatal Mujahideen and Al Badr have been the most active in recent months. That they have started new recruitment, indicated by the increasing number of missing boys in rural Kashmir.
Another organisation, called All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), is a conglomerate of various outfits and groups, and though not a representative of large masses of people, is an important player in the Kashmiri state politics. Gen. Musharraf had a discussion with the APHC, despite the displeasure of the Indian government, during his summit visit.
The National Conference (NC) is the major political party ruling the state of Kashmir under the stewardship of Dr.Farook Abdullah as the Chief Minister. NC, though an alliance partner in the National Democratic Alliance in the Central Government of India, is under constant fear of marginalisation in the India-Pakistan talks. Already it has the feeling of having been sidelined in the summit between India and Pakistan.
Has Pakistan ever denied its role strongly in relation to cross-border infiltration? In an interview to CNN, Pakistani Foreign Minister Mr. Abdul Sattar, while referring to this question said: "If anybody calls the freedom struggle a terrorist movement, this is certainly a distortion." The Pakistani government has never expressed any regret nor has there been a lull in its activities from 1988 onward.
It is undeniable that the people are alienated due to the continuing turmoil gripping the state. They hate the Pakistani-backed militancy and they are also disappointed over the non-performance of the Indiangovernment in fulfilling their aspirations, like meaningful autonomy for the state of Jammu-Kashmir. This promise was made when the accession of the region to Indian Union took place in 1947.
Meanwhile disruptive forces have started to dominate the political scene of the state. The religious fundamentalists want to divide the state on the basis of religion.
The Kashmir Valley has a Muslim majority. Though the Jammu region has high Hindu population, it consists of 34 percent Muslims and 6 percent Sikhs. The Ladakh Region consists of 54 percent Buddhists and 48 percent Muslims. Dividing the people according to their religion, in this correspondents view, would destroy their identities because there is an extreme interplay of religious, ethnic, regional, and cultural factors operating among the people.
Meanwhile, the Hindu chauvinistic organisation, the Rashtriya swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), based in India, has been advocating the division of the state of Kashmir into three separate states -- thereby freeing the provinces of Jammu and Ladakh from the Muslim majority Kashmir. RSS's theory is another sad example of the old two-nation theory.
The Government of India has to offer them a meaningful and substantive autonomy package.
In the meantime, the 54-year-old problem between India and Pakistan has assumed a new dimension with both countries treading on the nuclear path. The continuance of hostilities has now become a risky affair. If both subcontinental nations follow the course of further nuclear testing, development, deployment and induction, the resulting consequences could be unimaginable and terrifying. These two countries thus have not stepped in this dangerous course thanks to the growing resistance against nuclear armaments among their people.
Also the deteriorating situation on the economic front is preventing the two countries from indulgingg in the costly nuclear adventure. While talks must go on to resolve the problems between the two countries they have to pursue the option of nuclear disarmament.
The economic situation in both countries presents a gloomy picture, which leads one to wonder how much it costs Pakistan to conduct insurgency and for India to do counter-insurgency? Most estimates suggest that Pakistan spends over 5 million dollars (USD) a year to maintain the current level of insurgency and India spends over 10 times that level to counter the terrorism of thePakistani extremists.
The defense expenditure of both countries are on the increase.
Pakistan's national debt is 106 percent of its GDP while that of India is 45 percent. Bebt servicing for Pakistan devoured 75 percent of last years' federal revenues. India's debt servicing swallowed 44 percent of its revenues.
It's no wonder that the vast masses of the people in both countries leave in dreary conditions. Food security, a minimum level of education, employment and health are the necessities which common men cannot get in full even after more than 50 years of the existence of independent India and Pakistan. Resolving the conflict between the two countries, the normalization of ties, peace and tranquility are the precious goals that have to be achieved by both countries.
These goals would be achieved if the rulers of both countries keep in their minds the welfare of over a billion people living in the subcontinent. No doubt, they desire for lasting peace. The peace process should be continued with the involvement people of Jammu and Kashmir.
With no concrete efforts to involve the people so far, there seems to be the involvement of external forces, particularly the US.
A few days before the Summit, Gen. Musharraf was reported to have remarked that India invited him for talks because of pressure from Washington. Whatever might be the truth regarding the role of US in this Summit episode, in the past the US played its cards in this region to suit its interests. In an interview to an Indian daily, US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage himself confessed: "For years we had an unbalanced policy in South Asia and people would look at it superficially and say we had great relationship with Pakistan, but it was in a way a false relationship because in the first instance it was built against the India-Soviet Union axis and then latterly it was against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. So we didn't have a policy for Pakistan; we had a policy with Pakistan directed against something else... One can understand how far Pakistan could have been emboldened by this policy to pursue its anti-India activities..."
The interference, either direct or indirect, was always there from the side of US. Last year after visiting India, the then President Bill Clinton stated his willingness to personally involve himself to solve the problem of Kashmir. The geostrategic location of Kashmir is attracting the attention of major powers.
But the interference from foreign powers would destroy the mutual trust between the two countries and the open-mindedness in the negotiations. So the US as well as the West should avoid it. Instead, they must render public support for the peaceful resolution of the conflict through the direct dialogue between India and Pakistan.
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