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G21 ASIA: CHINA & THE PACIFIC CENTURY - Lecturer X.N. IRAKI looked to history for models for the future of the global economyh.
Frankfort, KY, USA - For the last 100 years, the Atlantic Ocean has been the center of action with Europe and America competing and cooperating for influence worldwide. After the defeat of the Nazis in Germany and of the Japanese empire, in WW II, the US then helped those countries rebuild, ushering in one of the World's longest periods of prosperity.
X.N. Iraki Before then, we had the Mediterranean as the epicenter of activity from when the Roman Empire was its apogee, before the Vandals, et alia, wreaked havoc and imperial Rome came to an end. Luckily, the Romans left a lasting impression on us; we still use their legal system. But the Mediterranean is still part of the Atlantic network, adjoined by the strait of Gibraltar.
Africa got colonized in the same period and had her socio-political systems changed. We now know more about the West than the East, where the sun rises. It was across the Atlantic that slavery and its evils took place. When Spain and Portugal were the superpowers, they made the Atlantic their playing field. Portugal, in particular, ventured into the Indian Ocean, as well, and ruled the East African coast for 200 years before the Arabs routed them.
Apart from Fort J esus in Mombasa, Kenya, and the word "mesa," which means table in Swahili and Portuguese, the Portuguese left little impression, yes after 200 years! They stayed in Angola and Mozambique for almost 500 years until the winds of change routed them in 1975. As for the Spanish, their star had dimmed much earlier.
It seems now that the world's center of gravity is shifting to the East and faster than many predicted. Recently, Chinese president Hu Jintao was in the USA, then visited Africa with Kenya as one of his destinations.
Businessmen and politicians competed to meet him in the USA; even academics were not left out. He gave a talk at Yale University and Bill Gates hosted him in Seattle, in the Pacific Northwest.
It seems we are already in the Pacific Century. The pendulum has swung irreversibly. No one wants to be left behind as the bus heads East laden with hope and prospects. Like any other great geo-political or economic shift, there are losers and winners. We all hope we shall not be losers.
We could start by asking why China has suddenly risen. Until the fall of communism in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe in 1989, few economists or political analysts spent a lot of time on China. Today Universities have started courses not just on Chinese languages but also on her economy. Suddenly we behave as if communism is dead! Oh yes, it seems money is opaque to political systems.
It is paradoxical that the Chinese prosperity is build not on capitalism, but on its anti-thesis, communism. It will remain a matter of historical conjecture why China was left intact when other communist powers collapsed or are in a state of flux. It could be her "Chineseness" which held the country together, aided by a homogeneous culture and long history. China is recorded as having got her independence in 221 BC!
It could also be that the Chinese are strategic thinkers, who realized that, at times, evolution can be better and more effective than revolution. Africa's post-independence leaders tried to use revolutions, instead of evolutions; they paid the price.
Few can deny that the rise of China was no surprise. She was already a nuclear power and, though with a huge rural area and poor hinterland, she had a critical mass of technology and science. Today, she produces a steady supply of engineers and scientists, people critical to the current and future economy. It could be that after her own suffering of civil unrest, major famines, military defeats and foreign occupation, she learned her lessons.
Other pundits suggest that Confucianism and its emphasis on strong families has been the bedrock of Chinese strength. Others still suggest that fear has held the country together as demonstrated by the Tiananmen Square events in 1989. The truth may never be known.
What is in no doubt is that China is the fulcrum on which the Pacific Century will rotate. She has the population and the economic and human resources needed. She has built a momentum that will increase after the 2008 Olympics, when we shall know more about China.
With her fast economic growth, China is attracting world attention. China has become the world's workshop, as Britain was in the 19th century.
What can we learn from this big neighbor to the East?
One, politics is not everything, strategic thinking is. As China straddles the globe looking for cheap oil to drive her industrial revolution, other countries are busy fighting among ourselves. We may claim we are more democratic than China but what has that democracy done for us? If we cannot improve our economic wellbeing, even the best political system will not be of much use to us. China tries as much as possible not poke her nose into other countries' affairs, no wonder she is welcome everywhere.
Two, the family is the most important institution and it determines how strong a country becomes. China's strong families have ensured that children get the best attention from their parents and from the government. It is no wonder that, in the US, there's a belief that the Chinese are smarter. Rarely do you find them taking history or political science. They are in strategic areas like biotechnology, science and technology. The same can be said of Asian countries that have lately made sprints in economic growth, from Korea to Taiwan and Malaysia,
Three, there can be changes in the global arena, but it is those who drive and initiate change who benefit. The Chinese are trying to be the masters of change, they will reap the benefits.
Too often we Africans have let other people decide our destiny. We let the West do that for 100 years. Will the Chinese take over where the West stopped? Will China pursue her strategic interests at the expense of the locals as it has happened in the past? Few powers treated their "inferior" with kid gloves. Though colonialism was seen and touted as "the White Man's Burdens", the natives may have carried bigger burdens!
Four, leadership eventually determine the trajectory the country takes. Such leaders are patriotic, long term in perspective and think beyond this generation. As the Chinese come to Africa to explore sources of raw materials and energy, our politicians in some countries are holed up discussing how to increase their mileage allowances. Quite a sweet a deal, getting something out of nothing! Leaders can either make people believe in themselves and face the future with confidence, or they can imbibe in pessimism, seeing the future as bleak.
Five, though every power eventually reaches its apogee and declines, we should not stop endeavoring to stake our claim on the emerging global scheme of things. One approach would be for the small countries to piggy back on China, the rising power, in the same way that Japan piggy-backed on the US, while South Korea and other Tigers piggy backed on Japan.
Finally, transforming a country with a diverse population is a problem leaders should cherish confronting not running away from. Future generations will pay a tribute to them for transforming the problems into opportunities. We need to learn from the Chinese, but we must keep the lessons from the West as our references. Maybe the next century will the Indian Century, before the African Century arrives.
With our ingenuity and creativity we can hasten the arrival of the African Century. I will not be there when that happens but I sincerely hope someone will pull this piece from somewhere and remind those walking on this small planet, this terrestrial ball, someone in the distant past thought the African Century was a possibility, not a mirage in the desert.
It will remain a matter of speculation what will happen when the African Century is over. Shall we return to the Atlantic and the cycle start all over again? That is great fodder for strategists, nay sayers, prophets, speculators and a few idlers.
X. N. IRAKI, a lecturer at the University of Nairobi's School of Business is currently on an extended visit to the Commonwealth of Kentucky.
