Yet despite the shaky but non-violent co-existence in Northern Ireland over the past few months, that very Party demonstrated its anger with Trimble, on a disastrous day for him, on Saturday 25th of March.

The Reverend Martin Smyth, a right wing Protestant who was one of the 30% of UUP members who opposed the Good Friday Agreement, challenged Trimble for the Party leadership. In reality, Smyth had no chance. He was not well known and certainly not perceived to be politically capable to lead such an important Party. Trimble in any case is extremely well supported and respected around the world, let alone in his own Party. Yet Trimble suffers from the same disease that afflicted Winston Churchill. He is loved everywhere around the globe, he will go down in history as a great man and in years to come those who lived under him will say what a wonderful Minister he was. However, Churchill was humiliated at the 1945 General Election because of genuine hatred towards him, and Trimble must have felt as Churchill did then, on that Saturday afternoon. 43% of his own Party voted against him.

Despite the benefits of peace and local power, opposition to the Good Friday Agreement had not just grown, but by 13%, exceeding all predictions, even the most pessimistic ones. Trimble had hoped the vote would have given him the opportunity to distance himself, possibly break altogether, from far right hardliners in the UUP, such as the Orange Order and Young Unionists, and tell extremist Ministers, as John Major once said, to "put up or shut up." But the inconceivably narrow victory has led to press speculation over his political future (Trimble said recently "there is life after politics") and given him barely any room to manoeuvre. His hands are now so tightly tied that the Republicans have to contemplate the possibility of not just doing business without him, but without the whole UUP.

The catalyst for disaster followed Trimble's comments in Washington, when he hinted that the May 22nd deadline for all IRA weapons to be handed in could be replaced by a compromise, whereby a declaration of non-violence could be sufficient for peace for the time being. UUP member Willie Ross said this was "the straw that broke the camel's back." Nationalists on the other hand, have as mentioned, always opposed any impetus on them handing weapons in. Why should they when the British Army, albeit in fewer numbers than before, still operates in Northern Ireland? Why should they when loyalist paramilitaries do not have to demilitarise? Yet many Unionists it seems, viewed Trimble's comments as a step too far. In fact to make matters worse for Trimble, on the same day of his "victory", the UUP rejected taking the word "Royal" out of the RUC, even though the British Government had recommended it.

So where does this leave the peace process? In tatters is the obvious answer. The BBC correspondent Andrew Castle has claimed that "peace is now remote." Ross said that his leader's position was in "serious doubt." The British and Irish press have speculated that the next leader of the UUP will come sooner rather than later, and that he will be an extreme right winger. But why should this be the case? Still over one in two of the Party support Trimble, and it is plausible that much of the extra 13% that voted against him do not oppose the peace process, but wanted to give Trimble a warning that he must stop granting concessions to Republicans, and that the peace process must proceed more cautiously, as they knew he would easily win the election. Trimble himself told reporters, "don t hold your breath waiting" when asked how long it would be until he resigns.

The British Government's Northern Ireland Secretary, Peter Mandelson, has also remained optimistic. Following the vote he gave a clear indication of his views: peace is not in doubt, but the hardliners from both camps (Unionists who do not wish to concede anything, and republicans who refuse to hand in any weapons) are severely stalling the process. It has also been reported that Mandelson is considering extending the May 22nd deadline by up to two years, and has asked Republicans to bail Trimble out by decommissioning some weapons. That would be highly unlikely however, as the Republicans have not caved in to Trimble's pragmatic compromises, it does not seem possible that they would bow to hardline Unionist pressure.

The future therefore may be bleak, but the political situation in Northern Ireland should still be a lot rosier than what it was, even just three to five years ago. Many believe that the UUP is at a crossroads now, where it will either turn right and go back a century, or steer slightly to the left down a more progressive, secular road. The problem is that both turnings could have messy, potentially disastrous results. There is therefore a third option, one that Trimble will probably take. Just as when the decommissioning problem reared its head a couple of months ago, the media predicted either weapons would be handed in, or the peace process would collapse. As yet, neither has happened. The pragmatic approach to the issue by Mandelson, Adams and Trimble in particular, has meant that the sum of many small problems is weaker than a singular whole one. Trimble may therefore use the experience gained, and make generalised speeches about how important the views of the hardliners are, whilst in practice proceeding cautiously forward with the peace process.