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Dreaming the Future

by Rod Amis

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There are technology writers, I believe, who are wonderful in doing product reviews. Others I follow because of their particular expertise on one facet of an industry, or their experience with how financing works. I believe that my own strong suit is projecting future trends or, as I would romantically put it, dreaming the future. Looking back over my career writing IT columns, I would say that a full thirty percent of those have been fingering the entrails of The Now to suggest what tomorrow might hold. I am not as daring as an H.G. Wells or Jules Verne, so I don't venture to look at the future century. I restrict myself to the next decade.

One of my daring predictions is that we are on the threshold of the post-human era. I fully expect that either by means of information technology or biotechnology, and likely some combination of the two, the next decade will see an enhanced human being who apprehends reality in a manner far differently than our cleverest people today. This post-human, meaning an individual or individuals clever by way of enhancement than the cleverest of us, will usher in a class system of a sort different than anything we have yet seen in our history. I don't believe this is all sinister; no, I suspect that it could provide genuine benefits for humanity.

But I know many, many people are uncomfortable with such thinking for reasons legal, religious, or ethical.

The myth of Pandora speaks, as all myths do, to our essential curiousity. We are compelled to open the box, knowing full well that both blessings and curses must emerge.

It's a WIRED world.


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The United States, some say, is a nation compulsively focused on the future because of its inability to reconcile itself with the past...
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The status quo power relationships are what all the important trends of world history have been leading. It would be foolish to believe otherwise.
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Memoirs graphic.

I dream a future in which there will be no debate about whether to genetically modify food, or other biological entities, because it will have become a fait accompli.

It will be an era where our understanding of legal tender will expand beyond currencies to credits, and frequent flyer miles, electronic bartering systems and corporate credits in other forms will be as ubiquitous as what we now call "money" and used for things other than they are intended today. You will use your smart card to log credits from all of these forms of legal tender to cover purchases of everything from food to mortgages. We are already moving toward this consensus. This is frightening central bankers, as well it should.

A by-product of this Information Age we are recording in these pages is the modification and expansion of "how it's always been done." Try as we might to put the brakes on this modification of our lives, the blessings and curses are already streaming out of the box.

A major conflict to be resolved in the next decade will be how we in the West adjust to a world where Anglophone dominance goes on the wane. As more of international transactions begin to be processed in Chinese, Hindi, and Spanish, an adjustment of how we interact in the world economy and as global citizens will also have to take place. Most of all, I believe, we will be required to adjust our attitudes toward and relationship with the Chinese. That's an awesome challenge.

The greatest challenge, because of the dominant position of the country over the last few decades and its relatively isolationist worldview, will be for the United States. The ego-bruising realization that everyone does not want to be like us will be hard to swallow.

In the future decade I dream emerging, issues of race and class will not go away, they will instead confront us even more poignantly than they have in the past. This latter has less to do with the Information Age than with the fact that denial has never been a successful strategy for resolving problems. Even in The Now we try to deny the failures we have had with these two issues, to minimize the importance of putting the old bugaboos to rest. So, like all things denied and repressed, they will come back to us as monsters.

But I suspect the greatest challenge of this future I am dreaming will be for us to determine exactly how we will define the tribe. That is, will we give our highest allegiance to the national tribe, the ethnic and racial tribe, the tribe of shared interest, or the corporate tribe? Whose side will we be on?

I do not mean to imply for an instant that this challenge will manifest itself in an either/or nature. It will much more complex than that. But in the final analysis, individuals will be challenged to determine how the essence of their hierarchical or cooperative lives will be defined. Nationalism as we know it is a relatively recent historical phenomenon. The information age, by its very nature, challenges the continued efficacy of the notion of nationalism. The strains are being felt. Though nationalism has been politically effective for two centuries, other allegiances have continued to make their power felt, especially ethnic and racial allegiances. This, too, is being changed.

Advances in communcations and transportation technologies, even if we discount the revolution of information technology, have made the definition "citizen of the world" less a romantic notion and more one embraced by our corporate citizens and ourselves. It only follows that the next step in this evolution is toward a defintion based on corporate or interest allegiance. The mere fact that we have added "corporate culture" to our lexicon is evidence of this shift in perception.

I am dreaming of a day when passports will be irrelevant.



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